After exploding pagers and walkie-talkies, what’s next?

Last Wednesday, 18 September, pagers used by Hezbollah militants and others in Lebanon exploded, killing 15 and injuring many more.

Before Lebanon and the rest of the world could recover from the shock of this attack, the next day, walkie-talkies in that country exploded, raising the two-day toll to 37 dead and 3,000 injured. Mourners at the first attack’s funerals were also caught in the second.

Western media largely praised Israel’s technological prowess, showing no moral outrage. Imagine if Iran had done the same in Israel—President Joe Biden and other Western leaders would have condemned it as an atrocity. The West’s failure to uphold its supposed value-based, rule-based order exposes its moral bankruptcy.

International law

Only UN Human Rights High Commissioner Volker Turk demonstrated legal and moral clarity. He told the Security Council, “International humanitarian law prohibits the use of booby-trap devices in the form of apparently harmless portable objects.”

He added, “It is a war crime to commit violence intended to spread terror among civilians,” and called for an “independent, rigorous, and transparent” investigation. Unfortunately, we can be almost certain no such investigation will happen—Washington will veto any resolution mandating it.

As expected, the Security Council meeting on 20 September took no concrete action. Under secretary-general Rosemary A. DiCarlo noted the urgent need for de-escalation and warned of a wider ‘conflagration.’ Lebanese foreign minister Abdullah Bou Habib said the failure to implement Council resolutions since 1948 has emboldened Israel to act as a ‘rogue state,’ a valid observation.

Why did Netanyahu do it?

The stated reason is to allow 60,000 Israelis, who fled northern Israel after Hezbollah’s 8 October rocket fire, to return.

Israel’s retaliation displaced 90,000 Lebanese.

Washington and Paris have sought a resolution by getting Hezbollah to move north beyond the Litani River, with Israel citing UN Security Council Resolution 1701 (2006), though it has violated many resolutions, as Lebanon’s Bou Habib noted.

We don’t know if Netanyahu will succeed in returning the 60,000 Israelis to the north, but his mission to eradicate Hamas and release hostages in Gaza remains unfulfilled. It’s possible he’s opening a new front to divert attention from his failure in Gaza.

More importantly, Netanyahu may be provoking Iran into joining the fray, confident of Biden’s support. The Pentagon has stationed about 40,000 troops, a dozen warships, and four fighter jet squadrons in the region.

Despite Netanyahu’s provocations, Iran has shown restraint, even after Israel arranged for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismael Haniyeh during his Tehran visit on 31 July. Netanyahu is likely to continue provoking Iran.

Israel getting isolated

In March, Nicaragua took Germany to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), asking it to cease arms exports to Israel. While the court declined to pass an order, the Greens-led ministries of foreign affairs and economy favored stopping the exports, and they have prevailed. The Green Party focuses on environmental issues, social justice, and human rights.

The UK announced a partial suspension of arms exports to Israel, suspending 30 of 350 licenses, citing a “clear risk” of breaching international law. Spain, Ireland, and Norway have recognized Palestine, and 10 of the 27 EU member states now recognize it.

The General Assembly passed a resolution seeking to implement the ICJ’s advisory opinion that Israel holds ‘occupied territories’ illegally. It was moved by Palestine and adopted by a two-thirds majority (124 for, 14 against, 43 abstentions). India abstained, marking a shift from its longstanding support for Palestine.

The International Criminal Court may soon issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu and defense minister Yoav Gallant, who risk arrest in Europe, where member states are obligated to enforce ICC rulings.

Will Netanyahu prevail?

Though Israel, supported by the US, UK, and France, has superior firepower, that doesn’t guarantee victory.

Didn’t the US have superior firepower in Vietnam? Or the French in Algeria?

Israel’s economy is struggling, with labor shortages exacerbated by the denial of permits to 160,000 Palestinian workers. Efforts to replace them with workers from India and other countries have only partially succeeded.

The Indian Express reported the chaos in recruiting from India, with unskilled young men lured by promises of ₹1 lakh salaries, many of whom have already returned.

Israeli finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, while presenting the 2025 budget, admitted, “We are in the longest and most expensive war in Israel’s history,” with costs estimated at NIS 200-250 billion ($54-68 billion).

This war began with a huge crisis between the state and its citizens, “and we had to rebuild trust,” Smotrich added.

We don’t know if Netanyahu will succeed, but if the war expands and Iran gets involved, tens of thousands of lives will be lost, and many more displaced.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is actively working to end the war in Ukraine, should consider what he can do in West Asia, given his excellent rapport with Netanyahu.

Modi met with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in the US on Sunday, 22 September, and expressed concern at the humanitarian situation in Gaza, while reiterating India’s support for the restoration of peace and stability in the region.

Hezbollah’s response

In a televised address from an undisclosed location, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, 64, addressed the situation on 19 September:

Nasrallah blamed Israel for the deadly explosions of Hezbollah pagers and radios, stating civilians were among the victims. He noted that senior Hezbollah officials do not use the pager models that exploded.

The Hezbollah leader promised the group’s operations in southern Lebanon would continue until Israel’s war in Gaza concludes, adding that the attacks only strengthened Hezbollah’s resolve, and referred to Israel’s actions as ‘genocide,’ though Al Jazeera translators used the word ‘massacre.’

Nasrallah had to deliver his address from an undisclosed location.

Escalating conflict

On Monday, 23 September, Israeli strikes across Lebanon killed more than 180 people and injured 700 in one of the deadliest days of conflict since October last year.

Hezbollah responded by firing rockets, some of which evaded Israel’s Iron Dome.

The Haifa Memorial, set for 23 September to honor the liberation of the city by Indian soldiers in 1918, has been canceled due to rocket strikes.

The Haifa Memorial commemorates the Indian soldiers who liberated the city during World War I. These soldiers, part of the British Indian Army, fought against the Ottoman Empire, which controlled Haifa at the time and was aligned with the Central Powers.

The Indian troops helped free the city from Ottoman-German forces, securing a key victory for the Allied forces.

(Updated with latest Israeli strikes on Lebanon)