After Gaza and Beirut, what’s next for Israel?

On 26 August, this columnist had raised the question: Will Netanyahu finally succeed in igniting a bigger war in the Middle East?

Rapid developments over the past fortnight necessitate a reassessment. A brief chronology might help:

16 September: The Israeli cabinet sets new war goal to enable the return of 60,000 displaced citizens to northern Israel.

17 September: Pagers explode in Lebanon, killing 12 and wounding 2,750.

18 September: Wireless devices explode, killing 30 and wounding 750.

19 September: Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon begin.

21 September: The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) claims to have destroyed Hezbollah’s chain of command.

22 September: Israeli President Isaac Herzog denies responsibility for the explosion of communication devices.

23 September: About 1,600 strikes result in 558 deaths and 1,836 wounded.

25 September: The number of those displaced hits 45,000.

27 September: Netanyahu said at the UNGA: “As long as Hezbollah chooses the path of war, Israel has no choice, and Israel has every right to remove this threat and return our citizens to their homes safely…There is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach. And that’s true of the entire Middle East. Far from being lambs led to the slaughter, Israel soldiers have fought back with incredible courage…I have a message for the tyrants of Tehran. If you strike us, we will strike you.”

During the speech, Netanyahu displayed two maps: one, titled ‘The Blessings’, showed Israel’s potential Arab allies in the region, while the second, titled ‘The Curse’, showed Iran and its allies.

Both the maps expunged Gaza and the West Bank.

Within hours of Netanyahu’s speech, the IDF flew F-15 jets to drop bunker-busting 2,000-pound bombs on about six residential buildings.

An Iranian mole reportedly gave Mossad information about the location of an emergency meeting planned by Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah with his top commanders.

28 September: Israel announces the killing of Nasrallah.

Washington claimed it was unaware of the operation. The F-15s and the bunker-busting bombs were supplied by the Pentagon, which keeps an eye on the use of sensitive weapons it supplies. In 1984, Washington had tried to kill Nasrallah.

To understand what happened, we need to raise a question or two.

Why Netanyahu did what he did

As the first anniversary of the Hamas attack in Israel approaches on 7 October, Netanyahu, despite his best efforts, has not got the hostages back; nor has he ‘eliminated’ Hamas in Gaza. He needs to show some solid gain by 7 October.

His broader objective is to provoke Iran into conflict, anticipating support from the US, which might bomb Iran. Netanyahu could then project himself as the destroyer of Iran that was going nuclear and, thereby, posing a veritable threat to Israel.

The widening of the conflict could lead to chaos and possible regime change in Iran, potentially boosting Netanyahu’s standing even if hostages remain captive, and possibly resulting in the dismissal of his corruption charges.

With an eye on the US presidential election due in November, Netanyahu might have calculated that a big war in West Asia involving the US is likely to ensure Trump’s victory.

What exactly is Hezbollah?

There is considerable confusion in public mind about Hezbollah, which means “The Party of God”. Those who see it solely as a terrorist organization may miss the big picture.

Hezbollah was founded by Shia clerics in Lebanon to fight the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, inspired by the 1979 Iranian Revolution led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini that ended the rule by the US-backed Shah.

Hezbollah’s primary aim was to end Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon under the pretext that it was necessary to maintain an Israeli military presence there for Israel’s security.

Initially, Hezbollah members resorted to suicide attacks against the IDF till Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) armed and trained them.

In the 1990s, Hezbollah entered politics and today holds 14 of the 128 seats in the Lebanese parliament. An alliance that includes Hezbollah rules Lebanon currently.

Hezbollah also has an extensive social service network, which among other services, helped restore water supply in Beirut during its war with Israel in July 2006.

Hezbollah’s complex identity includes armed, political, and social wings.

Now, is Hezbollah also a terrorist organization?

A commonly accepted definition of terrorism is a non-state actor engaging in violence against non-military personnel to advance political goals.

It follows that Hezbollah is a terrorist organization. However, it does not follow that it is nothing but a terrorist organization.

So, what next?

Netanyahu has threatened the “tyrants” in Iran.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has been shifted to a safe location. Israel might target IRGC and others in Iran, and it might succeed in killing some.

The IDF has already started bombing Yemen, where Hezbollah’s allies, the Houthis, operate.

The message to Iran is that one by one, its allies will be hit while Tehran itself is unable or unwilling to retaliate.

The most likely scenario is that after one or two attempts are made to kill targets in Iran, potentially forcing Tehran into a retaliatory position, which would eventually lead to a large-scale conflict that could ensure Donald Trump’s victory in the US and allow Netanyahu to negotiate a ceasefire on favorable terms.

The big war may or may not go as planned by Netanyahu. The less likely scenario is Iran will maintain restraint and Netanyahu will not get the big war he wants so desperately.

In either case, sooner or later, sooner rather than later, oil prices might go up and adversely impact the economies of oil importing states like India, which also needs to ensure the safety of its citizens in Israel, including the ones recently recruited as labor.

Historical context

In June 1982, Israel started Operation Peace for Galilee partly to put an end to raids by the Palestine Liberation Organization, or PLO, based in southern Lebanon.

As part of this operation, the IDF started bombings on 12 August that year, killing 300, mainly civilians.

Then US president Ronald Reagan instructed US secretary of state Alexander Haig to demand an immediate end to the bombing.

Haig failed.

Reagan then got on the phone with then Israeli prime minister Menachim Begin.

He told Begin, “Here, on our television, night after night, our people are being shown the symbols of this war, and it is a holocaust.”

Reagan used the word “holocaust” deliberately, fully aware of its emotional impact on the Israeli PM.

Reagan demanded that the bombings cease, since “our entire future relations are at stake if this continues.”

The Israeli PM called a cabinet meeting and called off the bombing.

This episode has been mentioned for two reasons:

One, this conversation is not present in several accounts of the 1982 war, including Encyclopedia Britannica.

The second reason is even more important.

It illustrates how a US president, with a sense of responsibility, can use his authority to compel Israel to pull up its socks.

President Biden has sadly failed in this regard.