Five months into the Iran war, Trump still has no exit plan

The war on Iran, launched by US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on 28 February, has entered its sixth month. There is still no reliable sign of how or when it might end.

At the time of writing, on the evening of 30 July, the war was continuing. US strikes hit Ahvaz, Abadan, Qeshm Island and other locations in southern Iran, according to Iranian media reports. Ahvaz is the capital of the oil-rich province of Khuzestan, while Qeshm is the largest island in the Persian Gulf.

Earlier, on 29 July, Saudi Arabia and US Central Command (CENTCOM) said they had jointly struck Iran-aligned armed groups in Iraq in response to drone attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, including Saudi Aramco facilities.

Riyadh blamed militias operating from Iraqi territory. The Houthis separately claimed responsibility, while the Popular Mobilization Forces, or PMF, and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq denied involvement.

The PMF said at least 20 of its members were killed and 32 wounded. Four personnel from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, were also reported killed.

The PMF was formed in 2014 after Islamic State captured Mosul and large parts of Iraq. The US and the PMF fought the same enemy, sometimes on the same battlefields, although they were not formal partners.

Under Iraqi law, the PMF is already part of the country’s armed forces. In practice, however, many of its constituent groups retain their own command structures. The government is now seeking to bring their weapons fully under state control.

Baghdad reacted to the US-Saudi strikes by cancelling an official visit to Riyadh by Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi that had been scheduled for the following day.

Incidentally, al-Zaidi’s selection as prime minister was facilitated by Trump’s open opposition to former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, who had been nominated by Iraq’s largest Shia political coalition.

Trump recently hosted al-Zaidi at the White House. The Iraqi prime minister offered to carry a message to Iran, but Trump initially declined. Al-Zaidi later carried a US ceasefire proposal to Tehran, which Iran rejected, according to The Jerusalem Post and The New York Times. However, both Iraq and Iran have officially denied that any such message was carried.

We do not know what Trump, the principal actor in this sordid and unscripted tragedy, has in mind. Does he want to keep the war going and even expand it into Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the region? Or is he seeking a diplomatically negotiated end to the war?

It seems likely that Trump himself does not know what he wants. One day he says Iran is “begging” for talks. The next day, CENTCOM carries out fresh attacks on Iran.

CENTCOM said the latest bombing was retaliation for attempted Iranian missile attacks on US forces. Its statement, issued from Tampa, Florida, on 29 July, said: “CENTCOM assets struck dozens of IRGC targets in Iran, including military command centers, missile and drone facilities, coastal surveillance and defense sites, and maritime capabilities. The strikes aimed to further diminish threats posed by Iran and its proxies to American forces, commercial shipping, and neighboring Gulf countries.”

Trump had signed, with much fanfare, a 14-point memorandum of understanding (MoU) at the Palace of Versailles on 17 June. The MoU offered a clear roadmap for ending the war, restoring commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and negotiating an agreement under which Iran would never develop or otherwise acquire a nuclear weapon.

It also held out the prospect of ending more than four decades of hostility between the two countries, dating from the seizure of the US Embassy in Tehran by Iranian militants in 1979. Sanctions against Iran were to be lifted and frozen Iranian funds released, although much of that relief depended on compliance with a final agreement.

What has happened to that MoU?

Talks were held at the Qatari-owned Bürgenstock resort in Switzerland following the signing. The Iranian delegation was led by parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and the US delegation by Vice President J.D. Vance.

It should be noted that Iran announced another closure of the Strait of Hormuz and delayed sending its delegation amid protests over Israel’s continuing attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The talks lasted about 18 hours. Switzerland hosted the meeting, while Qatar and Pakistan mediated.

The two sides agreed to complete the drafting of a final agreement within the 60-day period stipulated in the MoU. Washington issued a temporary waiver permitting Iranian oil exports rather than permanently revoking the sanctions.

Vance said the high-level negotiations had laid a “very good foundation for a successful final deal” to end the war. Comparing the negotiations to the construction of a house, he said: “The final deal is the house. We set the foundation. We haven’t built the house, but we’ve laid a successful foundation.”

He said the discussions had achieved several objectives, including establishing mechanisms to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and creating a deconfliction mechanism for the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The arrangement was intended to ensure that “when things happen, the sides are actually talking to one another” and to prevent tensions from spiraling into a wider regional escalation, he said.

Vance also announced what he described as a major breakthrough on the nuclear question.

“The Iranians have agreed to invite IAEA inspectors back into their country,” he said, referring to the International Atomic Energy Agency. “That is a major milestone for the American people, and the first step in permanently denuclearizing or permanently ending a nuclear weapons program in Iran.”

Iran maintains that it is not seeking a nuclear weapon.

The vice president said the US, Iranian, Qatari and Pakistani negotiators had also agreed on a framework for continued engagement.

The Iranian assessment was rather more sober. Foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said there had been “major progress,” but cautioned that the “first real test” would be whether the US could stop Israel’s attacks in Lebanon.

As it happened, Trump could not compel Netanyahu to end Israel’s military operations in Lebanon.

For Iran, control over passage through the Strait of Hormuz is vital in an asymmetric war in which it is the weaker party.

Trump faced criticism from parts of his Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement for conceding too much to Iran. Washington, meanwhile, urged shipping companies not to comply with Iran’s instructions on which routes they should use. CENTCOM supported vessels using routes outside Iran’s designated channel and provided military protection, including air cover over the strait.

The MoU had already begun to unravel on 26 June, when the US resumed strikes after an Iranian drone hit the Singapore-flagged cargo ship Ever Lovely near the Omani coast. Tehran argued that Washington had itself breached the agreement by encouraging ships to disregard Iranian routing instructions.

Iran continued to attack vessels that it said had disregarded its instructions. Trump then declared that the Strait of Hormuz was under US control and proposed charging 20% of the value of cargo passing through it to cover the cost of providing security. He retreated from that proposal a day later.

By 8 July, Trump had had enough. “As far as I’m concerned, it’s over,” he said, referring to the MoU. He called further engagement with Iran “a waste of time.”

CENTCOM’s bombing widened into a sustained campaign by 12 July. Iran hit back at targets in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. Although Tehran said it was attacking US military assets, power generation and water desalination facilities in Kuwait were also hit. Hotels in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates had also been struck earlier in the conflict.

Iran’s intention appeared to be to compel the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states to ask Trump for a ceasefire.

The GCC found itself facing a dilemma. US bases had not protected its members from attack. In fact, their presence had made the host countries targets.

Pakistan had deployed about 8,000 troops, a squadron of fighter jets, and an air defense system to Saudi Arabia under a mutual defense pact signed in September 2025, Reuters reported in May.

Kuwait followed suit by ratifying in July a deal with Pakistan whereby the two countries will share intelligence and logistical support.

By 25 July, the US had paused its bombing campaign. The administration presented the pause as an opportunity for diplomacy.

There was another possible explanation. The Guardian reported that senior military officials had advised Trump to stop because the campaign was reaching the limits of its effectiveness and stocks of some munitions were dwindling.

In any case, Iran would have considered it imprudent to treat the pause as proof that Trump was genuinely eager to negotiate. It nevertheless stopped its attacks on the GCC, saying it would continue to hold fire as long as the US did the same.

After Trump, the next important actor is, of course, Netanyahu. He met Trump on 28 July, entering the White House through a side entrance and away from the cameras. The meeting was closed to the press, and the two leaders did not appear together before the media.

Israel’s continuing attacks on Lebanon will remain a serious obstacle to a final agreement between Iran and the United States. Will Iran yield when Trump appears unable or unwilling to make Netanyahu change course on Hezbollah?

For now, diplomacy has produced pauses in the fighting, not a path out of it.

Will things have to get worse before they get better?