New York’s left turn exposes deep US political fault lines

Zohran Mamdani’s landslide victory at 34, in a fiercely contested race for mayor of New York City, has been widely interpreted as a wake-up call for US President Donald Trump. That signal grew louder with the Democratic wins in Virginia, a state previously held by Republicans, and improved margins in New Jersey.

Before we assess whether Trump will heed that call, Mamdani’s triumph merits closer examination.

Reeling from a humiliating defeat to Trump nearly a year ago, the Democratic Party had been struggling to regain its footing. Mamdani’s victory, dramatic in both scale and symbolism, has reignited hope within its ranks. Two assumptions now appear ripe for revision.

First, the entrenched belief that the candidate with deeper pockets has the upper hand. Mamdani ran with a modest $10 million war chest. His opponent, Andrew Cuomo, a political heavyweight whose career began in 1990, a year before Mamdani was born, commanded $40 million.

Second, the idea that a socialist platform is politically untenable in America. Did not Senator Bernie Sanders get humiliatingly sidelined in his presidential bid because of his leftist ideology? Mamdani campaigned unapologetically on housing affordability, universal free childcare, and taxing the rich to fund social programs like free bus rides. He pledged to build 200,000 new homes.

Turnout, at two million, was the highest since 1969. Mamdani secured 1,036,000 votes, a clear majority. Still, only 39% of registered voters cast their ballots, a low figure when compared to democracies like India and others across the Global South.

So who backed Mamdani?

According to ABC News exit polls, Black, Hispanic, South Asian, and young White voters turned out in large numbers. He earned 78% of the under-30 vote, and 66% of voters aged 30 to 44.

Cuomo drew 53% support from those aged 45 to 64, and 55% among seniors.

Though Mamdani won the Democratic primaries decisively, the party establishment was tepid in its support. Even Barack Obama withheld endorsement.

Mamdani’s real base was the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), founded in 1982, with a decentralized structure that gives autonomy to local chapters and caucuses.

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Bernie Sanders, both DSA members, campaigned vigorously for him.

The DSA, whose motto is “Workers Deserve More,” made its position plain: “In the 2024 elections, working people have few good options. In most races, Americans will have to choose between far-right Republicans and corporate Democrats. In both cases, workers lose, and our politicians will remain controlled by their corporate donors, not the ordinary people who voted for them.”

The organization has 215 chapters and fielded 90,000 volunteers for Mamdani’s campaign.

Mamdani is the son of filmmaker Mira Nair and Mahmood Mamdani, a Gujarati Muslim academic born in Mumbai whose family moved to Uganda via Tanganyika when he was two.

On the trail, Mamdani often spoke in Hindi and quoted Jawaharlal Nehru. A video of him referencing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s alleged role in the 2002 Gujarat riots has circulated widely. He has also said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should be arrested if he lands in New York.

Can Mamdani deliver on his bold promises? He intends to raise taxes on salaries above $1 million. His proposed rent freeze could deter developers, including those tied to Trump. Will capital flee the city?

Trump, a New Yorker from Queens, had warned of cutting federal funds if Mamdani won. He may now deploy the National Guard in New York under the guise of tackling crime, as he did in Los Angeles.

Immigration raids on streets and job sites could intensify. Mamdani has said he would hold federal agents to the same legal standards as anyone else, implying potential arrest by city police for unlawful conduct.

He has repeatedly emphasized that immigrants built New York, a more accurate formulation would be immigrants and their descendants. Trump should be reminded that his own grandfather emigrated from Bavaria (Germany) in the 19th century.

How Mamdani navigates relations with the city’s Jewish diaspora, over a million strong in a city of 8.4 million, with outsized influence in media and finance, will be closely watched.

Two-thirds of Jewish voters supported Cuomo, but younger voters backed Mamdani.

A Pew Research Centre poll last year found just 50% of Jews under 35, and 68% of those over 50, deemed Israel’s conduct in the war “acceptable.”

As the civilian death toll mounted, largely comprising women and children, killed by American-supplied weapons, many Jewish students joined anti-Israel protests, which were forcefully suppressed by the Trump administration through grant cancellations and violent police action.

A direct confrontation is unlikely. Mamdani, now mayor, is expected to temper his rhetoric. As he put it in his victory speech: “A great New Yorker once said that while you campaign in poetry, you govern in prose.”

That New Yorker was former governor Mario Cuomo, father of Andrew. Mamdani graciously wished his defeated rival “only the best in private life.”

But will Trump heed this political thunderclap?

He misjudged the electorate’s mood, expecting backlash against Democrats for the government shutdown.

He also faces uncertainty over a looming Supreme Court verdict on the legality of his tariff hikes. Though conservatives hold a 6-3 majority, three conservative justices have questioned whether Trump overstepped his authority. Constitutionally, only Congress can impose taxes. Are import duties taxes?

Trump floated the idea of an “External Revenue Service” to collect tariffs, implying foreign exporters would foot the bill, a false claim no one seems to have publicly challenged.

There is another complication. If the Supreme Court rules against him, must the Treasury refund the extra $117 billion in customs duties it collected in FY25, a 250% jump from the previous year?

Even if reimbursement isn’t mandated, importers could sue. A ruling against Trump would strip him of a key negotiating weapon: the tariff threat.

Trump has reasons, good and strong, to be worried.

Whether he wakes up remains to be seen. He may well sleepwalk into a Waterloo at the November 2026 midterms, or jolt awake and course-correct.

If he intends to attend India’s AI summit in February next year, a trade deal may be on the cards.

And, will he also visit Pakistan?

India would be wise to await the court’s decision before finalizing any agreement.