About 11 million American workers may need to change occupations by 2035 as artificial intelligence and other technologies alter employers’ staffing needs, according to new research from McKinsey.

The estimate covers approximately 7% of the current US workforce, with employees expected to move from occupations where demand is declining into those offering better employment prospects.

In a report published Tuesday, 29 September, the McKinsey Global Institute estimated that automation could reduce demand for labor by the equivalent of 36 million jobs over the next decade. Economic growth, demographic changes and spending on new technologies could create demand for 41 million jobs during the same period, more than offsetting the projected reduction.

McKinsey estimated that growth in demand within existing occupations could offset the impact of automation on roughly 25 million jobs, although the work involved may change considerably. The remaining 11 million workers may need to move into different occupations.

The number could be as low as six million or exceed 16 million, depending on how quickly businesses adopt automation and how much it reduces their need for employees. McKinsey also estimated that more than 70% of US workers may need to learn new skills or adapt to substantial changes in their existing jobs, even if they do not change occupations.

Finding new jobs may be difficult

McKinsey estimated that approximately 770,000 US workers would need to move between broad occupational groups annually through 2035, about 3.6 times the historical average of 215,000. The problem is that growing industries may require skills that employees in declining occupations do not possess.

An administrative assistant, for example, may have experience handling documents, coordinating schedules and dealing with customers. Moving into project management or a specialized technical role could require additional training and qualifications.

McKinsey estimated that only about one in seven workers who need to change occupations could move into growing fields with little or no retraining and without losing income. Another 41% may require substantial training, while 45% could face more difficult transitions involving significant skills gaps, additional qualifications or other barriers.

The report identified office and administrative support, retail and sales, and transportation and logistics among the occupations facing declining demand. Healthcare, construction and management are among the areas expected to generate more employment.

Some workers could also move into better-paying jobs. McKinsey estimated that about 60% of growing employment opportunities could be concentrated in the two highest wage groups. But access to those jobs will depend on workers’ qualifications and whether they can afford the time and expense of retraining.

The estimates are based on economic models rather than observed job losses. They also cover broader economic changes, not the effects of AI alone.

India’s IT hiring is changing

The McKinsey report covers the US and does not provide comparable employment projections for India. However, recent hiring data indicate that Indian technology companies are also changing the skills they seek.

India’s technology industry was expected to generate approximately $315 billion in revenue in the fiscal year ended March 2026, according to industry body Nasscom. Employment was projected to reach 5.95 million, an increase of 135,000 jobs from the previous year. But Nasscom’s February strategic review also pointed to changes in how tech firms charge customers, with AI allowing some services to be delivered with fewer employees.

Recruitment figures show a similar change in demand. Hiring for AI-related positions in India’s IT sector increased 16% year over year in June, while overall IT recruitment declined 3%, according to Naukri’s JobSpeak report.

The figures, based on job listings from more than 150,000 companies, suggest that demand for specialized AI expertise is growing even as conventional technology hiring remains under pressure. Across 14 industries, job listings for AI and machine learning positions rose 25% during the same period.

The change is particularly relevant to India’s IT services companies, which have traditionally relied on hiring large numbers of engineers to deliver software development, maintenance and support services. As AI takes over some of those tasks, companies are placing greater emphasis on employees who can develop, deploy and manage AI systems.