Organized retail set to reach $230 billion by 2030: Deloitte-RAI report

Private consumption among Indians has spiked to $2.1 trillion last year—up from $1 trillion in 2013—posting a remarkable to 7.2% CAGR, according to a latest report by Deloitte India along with Retailers Association of India (RAI).

The report, titled India’s Discretionary Spend Evolution: A Roadmap For Brands, Highlighting That Private Consumption, observed that private consumption contributed 60% to the economy, solidifying the country’s status as a global powerhouse. The surge in private consumption has also outpaced that in the US China, and Germany, it said.

By 2030, the number of Indians earning an annual salary of more than $10,000 is expected to nearly triple, rising from 60 million in 2024 to 165 million. It highlights the significant growth of the country’s middle class and a fundamental shift towards discretionary spending, the report stated.

Key drivers of the consumption boom

Evolving consumer preferences: With rising affluence, consumers prioritize quality, convenience, and experiences over price.

Millennials and Gen Z, which are 52% of the country’s population, will drive demand for premium brands, sustainable products, and personalized experiences, the report stated.

Financial inclusion boosts pending: With growing credit access, credit card penetration will triple from 102 million in 2024 to 296 million by 2030, enabling increased consumer spending. According to the report, fintech solutions and digital payments such as UPI are reshaping how consumers engage with brands.

Shift in spending patterns: With the rise in disposable incomes, essential spending on food has declined, the report said, adding that rural food expenditure has dropped from 60% to 47%, and urban food expenditure has went down to 40% from 48 %. This reflects a growing inclination towards dining out, travel, wellness, and other discretionary categories such as fashion, fitness, home improvement, and consumer durables.

Rise in experience-led consumption: Organised retail is expanding rapidly, registering a 10% CAGR. It is expected to reach $230 billion by 2030. Consumers are also drawn to experience-led retail spaces, omnichannel shopping, and hyper-personalised services.

Anand Ramanathan, partner and consumer industry leader at Deloitte India, said that India’s consumer landscape is undergoing a fundamental transformation.

“The surge in discretionary spending, expanding digital commerce, and increasing access to credit are redefining the rules of engagement for brands,” Ramanathan said, adding that by 2030, India’s per capita income is expected to exceed $4,000, unlocking new opportunities across sectors.

He observed that businesses have an incredible opportunity to tap into evolving consumer expectations—by balancing affordability, convenience, and sustainability while harnessing data and technology to create highly personalized experiences.

Kumar Rajagopalan, chief executive officer of RAI, said, “India’s discretionary spending is entering a new phase of growth, driven by rising incomes, digital adoption, and evolving consumer preferences.”