What to expect from US foreign policy if Trump returns 

Though the US presidential election of 5 November 2024 is 166 days away and incumbent Joe Biden has withdrawn, nominating his vice-president Kamala Harris, it is pertinent to analyze what Donald Trump’s foreign policy might be should he win a second term. 

The recently concluded four-day NATO summit in Washington made significant efforts to ‘Trump-proof’ the US-led alliance. However, it’s questionable whether those leading the project believed in its effectiveness, as Trump could easily wreck the summit decisions by simply declaring that he would re-evaluate the whole matter. 

Pundits have tried to predict Trump’s foreign policy by analyzing earlier public statements from Senator J.D. Vance, Trump’s running mate. But Trump chose Vance for his appeal to young White Americans rather than his public speeches, where he once compared the former US president to Hitler. 

Trump is likely to make foreign policy decisions independently, consulting even fewer professionals than he did in his first term. His actions may be driven by a desire to enhance his image and legacy, sometimes with unpredictable consequences. 

Let us analyze Trump’s potential second term vis-a-vis different countries. 

Iran 

Trump is likely to be tough on Iran, even tougher than his first term. He ordered the killing of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leader General Qasem Soleimani in January 2020 and might repeat such actions in his second term. 

A hostile Trump presidency could push Iran closer to Russia and China, broadening its links with the Russia-China axis, a reality that American international relations scholars have rather belatedly started to take note of. Trump’s actions are likely to  escalate tension in an already inflammable region.  

Israel-Palestine 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, due in Washington for a joint session of Congress on 24 July, might conclude that he could afford to continue to disregard Biden’s repeated calls for restraint in military operations in Gaza and to implement the three-stage plan that Washington got approved by the UN Security Council in March. 

A Trump victory could demoralize Hamas, potentially allowing Netanyahu to dictate ceasefire terms. This is only one of the scenarios. Hamas might choose to fight on, and the horrendous dance of death might continue at least for a while. 

NATO and Europe  

As already argued in this column, fears of Trump walking out of NATO are rather  exaggerated. He might, however, push for increased defense spending from member-states, potentially raising the minimum from 2% to 3-4% of GDP. 

Ukraine 

If Trump wins, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy will have no choice but to talk to Russia on terms for a ceasefire. Russian President Vladimir Putin will insist on a ceasefire without any withdrawal from territory held by his military.  

Trump might broker a deal where Ukraine pledges not to seek NATO membership in exchange for Russian non-aggression. 

Even without the advantage of hindsight, it is possible to conclude that the war was unnecessary and that the three presidents—Putin, Zelenskyy, and Biden—are responsible, in varying degrees, for starting and continuing with this war with its unconscionably huge grim toll. 

The fear of Putin pouncing on Poland and other NATO member-states if he wins in Ukraine is rather unfounded. He is likely to continue dominating Georgia and Moldova, and will  expect the Baltic states—Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, and Lithuania—not to take a hardline anti-Russia stance. 

China 

Trump is expected to be tough on China economically but might recognize the symbiotic relationship between the two economies and avoid going too far.  

China, too, has trump cards to play as the major importer of soybeans, cotton, beef, poultry, wheat, and so on. China holds significant leverage as it imported agricultural products worth $200 billion in 2022. 

That China is the potential adversary that the US must deal with is accepted across the political divide, but Trump is unlikely to start a war with China.  

Chinese President Xi Jinping might conclude that it would have been easier to grab Taiwan were Biden in the White House. 

Trump, however, may try  to weaken the Sino-Russian axis strengthened by Biden’s policies. He might attempt a deal with North Korea, but chances of success are slim. 

India  

Trump is unlikely to show gratitude for the public support Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave him in Houston, Texas, in 2019. He will, however, gladly sell weapons and technology, benefiting the Military-Industrial-Congressional Complex. On trade, Trump might drive a tough bargain, as seen with the fuss he made about Harley Davidson motorcycles during his last term. 

The world order 

Trump’s contempt for a rules-based global order might weaken institutions like the UN, WTO, UNESCO, and the EU.  However, the world is moving towards multipolarity, a trend even Trump must acknowledge.  

We might see the far-right in Europe benefitting from a Trump presidency. How many Trump clones across the Atlantic there will be is anybody’s guess.