Quick-commerce grabs lion’s share of e-grocery orders, Flipkart-Bain report says

Quick-commerce (q-commerce) sector, where products are delivered in under 30 minutes, is quickly reshaping the e-commerce landscape India, and now accounts for more than two-thirds of all e-grocery orders and one-tenth of total e-retail spending, a Bain-Flipkart report released on Wednesday said.

The q-commerce sector is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of over 40% through 2030, the report said, noting that growth will be supported by diversification into categories such as electronics, apparel, and general merchandise.

Unlike global markets, Indian q-commerce firms have expanded profitably, piggybacking on high population density and an extensive network of low-cost dark stores.

Q-commerce growth has been driven by rising order values, improved supply chain efficiencies, and monetization strategies such as advertising and platform fees.

While the top six metro cities continue to dominate the market, expansion into smaller cities is leading to further adoption.

“However, to sustain profitable growth, companies must adapt their business models for markets beyond major metros, manage rising competition, and optimize supply chains as the market evolves into a two-speed proposition—offering select products in under 15 minutes and a wider assortment within an hour,” the Bain-Flipkart report said.

While q-commerce has seen a rapid growth in the country, the broader e-retail market in India—valued at about $60 billion last year—has seen a slowdown in growth to 10-12%, down from historical rates exceeding 20%, according to the report.

The reason behind this is inflation and stagnant real wages, which have slowed private consumption growth from 11% pre-covid to around 8% post-covid.

However, fiscal and monetary interventions are expected to cause a rebound in e-retail from the 2025 festive season.

“The e-retail market is expected to scale to $170–$190 billion by 2030, growing at over 18% annually. Nearly 1 in 10 retail dollars is projected to be spent on e-retail by 2030, fueled by an uptick in discretionary spending as India’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita crosses the crucial $3,500–$4,000 threshold, a key tipping point observed in e-retail spending globally,” according to the report.

Meanwhile, trend-first commerce, particularly in fashion, is projected to grow fourfold to $8-$10 billion by 2028. Social media influence and frequent product launches are expected to drive this trend.

Hyper-value commerce, which caters to price-sensitive customers in smaller cities, has also grown significantly. It now contributes more than 12% to India’s e-retail gross merchandise value (GMV), up from 5% in 2021.

About demographics and regional trends in the e-retail consumption, the report said that Gen Z shoppers comprise nearly 40% of India’s online shoppers. They also indulge in experimental purchasing and have a strong preference for digital payments.

Meanwhile, regional shopping habits vary significantly—customers in north India prioritize branded fashion as a status symbol, while those in south India focus more on electronics and quality markers.

With e-retail penetration growing beyond tier-I and tier-II cities, businesses are adapting strategies to cater to diverse consumer preferences. As India’s per capita GDP crosses $3,500-$4,000 in the coming years, discretionary spending is expected to rise, the report added.