1,000 days on, which way will the Russia-Ukraine war turn?

There has been a rapid escalation in Europe over the past few days, with neither Ukraine and its Western allies nor Russia showing any serious intent to seek a resolution.

The recent flare-up was triggered by US President Joe Biden’s decision on 17 November to allow Ukraine to use long-range ATCMS (Army Tactical Missile System) missiles, provided to Ukraine in February, for attacks inside Russia.

Initially, Washington had restricted these missiles to only target areas of Ukraine captured by Russia, aiming to minimize provocation from Moscow.

Following Trump’s electoral victory on 5 November, Biden faced pressure to maximize efforts before his term ends on 20 January.

The Pentagon, however, has publicly advised Ukraine to limit the use of these long-range missiles to operations within the Kursk region, where it aims to hold onto Russian territory captured this August.

We do not know whether Zelensky will comply. If he does not comply, Biden may choose to ignore the non-compliance.

Russia has mobilized about 50,000 troops, including some from North Korea, to retake Kursk, reclaiming about half so far.

On 19 November, coinciding with the 1,000th day of the war, Ukraine struck Russia’s Bryansk region with ATCMS missiles.

That same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a new nuclear doctrine that lowers the threshold for using nuclear weapons.

In retaliation for the Bryansk attack, Russia launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on 21 November.

1,000 days on, a balance sheet of the war

Neither Western media nor Russian sources provide reliable war coverage. However, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) offers comparatively dependable data.

ISW statistics indicate that Moscow’s forces have seized about 2,700 sq. km of Ukrainian territory this year, a significant increase from just 465 sq. km in 2023.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s unexpected incursion into Russia’s Kursk region is faltering, with Russian forces pushing back Kyiv’s offensive.

Experts have dubbed the move a “strategic catastrophe,” citing Ukraine’s manpower shortages.

External support for Ukraine

External support for Ukraine primarily comes from the US and EU. Accurate, up-to-date information on the support Ukraine receives is scarce online.

Reliable sources indicate that as of 30 September, US funding totals nearly $183 billion, with $130.1 billion obligated and $86.7 billion disbursed.  The EU has contributed over $92 billion.

More than $380 billion in aid, committed but not necessarily disbursed, by Western nations and others since January 2022, has enabled Ukraine to continue fighting.

Obviously, despite such massive aid, Ukraine has not been able to resist the Russian military’s advance.

Ukrainian diplomacy

Ukraine’s diplomacy has been as ineffective as its military. The so-called peace summit held in June at Burgenstock Resort in Switzerland attended by representatives from 92 nations turned out to be sterile.

In November 2022, Zelensky proposed a ten-point peace plan that included restoring the Ukraine-Russia border to its pre-Crimea annexation state in 2014, prosecuting war criminals, and reconstructing at Russia’s expense. The plan failed to gain traction.

More recently, Zelensky introduced a “victory plan” that calls for immediate NATO membership and joint operations with European neighbors to neutralize Russian drones and missiles.

Biden has not endorsed it, reflecting NATO’s reluctance to admit Ukraine at this time.

Zelensky appears unable to accept that during a war, the losing side cannot set ceasefire terms unless the winning side agrees.

Russia’s response to economic sanctions from the US and Europe has been resilient. Contrary to expectations, the Russian economy is projected to grow by 3.6% in 2024, outpacing Germany’s stagnant economy.

Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine, which lowers the threshold for nuclear weapon use against nations supported by nuclear powers, is a serious shift, not merely “irresponsible rhetoric” as Washington claims.

Putin’s recent statements suggest Russia might retaliate against countries whose weapons are used against it, hinting at NATO’s Article 5, which states that an attack on one member is an attack on all.

He made a tilted reference to the article by saying that an attack on Russia by a member-state would be treated as an attack by all the member-states.

After the Dnipro attack, Washington stated Russia had only a few of the type of missile used; Putin announced that he had ordered an increase in production.

What next?

There is loose talk of World War-III. For example, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK, Valery Zalushny, has declared that World War-III has already begun.

A world war involves multiple continents; World War-II, for instance, was fought in Europe, Asia, and Africa, and across the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific oceans.

Will Russia resort to nuclear weapons against Ukraine or any other country?

In Finland and Sweden, the citizens have been told by government to be ‘prepared for war’. Sweden has started sending out millions of pamphlets advising citizens what to do in case war breaks out.

While it will be foolhardy to predict, it is rather unlikely that Putin will resort to the use of nuclear weapons. Russia has a significant local military superiority and NATO will not send boots to the ground.

Should Biden choose to escalate further during his last few weeks in the White House, Putin might wait for Trump to come in.

Another possibility, to be taken seriously, is that after the new Republican Congress starts in early January, Putin can send an ultimatum to Ukraine to stop sending missiles to Russia proper, and to make a public declaration to that effect within 4 hours or face the consequences.

Most likely Biden will have to compel Zelensky to abide by the ultimatum.

Washington’s insistence that Zelensky alone must agree to ceasefire talks is increasingly criticized in the West. Direct talks between Russia and Ukraine would likely be to the disadvantage of the latter.

Trump has repeatedly expressed a desire to end the war quickly. If he stops US support for Ukraine as president, Europe is likely to follow suit.

Germany, after the US the largest supporter of Ukraine, has denied Ukraine’s request for long-range missiles.

It is not unlikely that Putin and Trump will agree on a deal and Ukraine will have to sign on the dotted line. Zelensky might even be replaced.