What’s behind Hasina’s fall and what it means for India  

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, 76, daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman—the father of that nation—fled on a military helicopter on Monday, 5 August, after being given 45 minutes by the military to decide whether to leave or not. 

The military informed her that they would not protect her from the fury of the students and other protesters marching towards Ganabhaban, her official residence, after around 100 protesters were killed by security forces the previous day. The death toll since the campaign against her began over a month ago is about 300. 

Hasina’s flight reminds me of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in 2011 during the Arab Spring. He resigned and fled not only because of the widespread protests seeking his fall from power but also because the military ‘advised’ him to leave office.  

If the military had not given her a deadline and had obeyed her orders to shoot at demonstrators, Hasina would not have resigned. 

Hasina was once a towering icon of democracy. In 1975, Rahman and the rest of his family, except for Hasina, her husband, children, and younger sister Rehana, were killed in cold blood. Hasina was in Europe when her father was murdered. 

Then Indian prime minister Indira Gandhi offered asylum to Hasina, who returned to Bangladesh only in 1981. She and Begum Khaleda Zia put up a united fight against President Hussain Muhammad Ershad, who, as army chief, had carried out a coup in 1983. His regime was a military dictatorship with a thin democratic garb. 

Winning the 1996 election, Hasina served as prime minister from 1996 to 2001, when she lost to Khaleda Zia. Hasina returned to power in 2009 and won successive elections.  

The last election, held in January this year, was neither fair nor free. The main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) of Khaleda Zia, and others had called for a boycott of the election. The chief election commissioner initially announced that only 27% of the electorate had voted. However, within an hour, he was forced to correct himself and state that the voting percentage was 40%. In 2018, it was 80%. 

Why did Hasina fall? 

It is important to correctly diagnose the causes of Hasina’s fall from power. The most important factor is her megalomania, as pointed out by former foreign secretary Shamsher M. Chaudhury. She had insulated herself from political reality. Lord Acton (1834-1902) famously pointed out that power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. We may add a rider: Power tends to isolate itself, and absolute power isolates itself absolutely. 

When the youth protested against her decision to reintroduce the reservation in government jobs for the descendants of freedom fighters, she publicly called them ‘Razakars’, a term associated with those who collaborated with Pakistan and worked against the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971. Did she not know that the protesting youngsters were born long after 1971? 

About 40% of the youth aged between 15 to 24 are unemployed. If Hasina reintroduced quotas for the descendants of freedom fighters, it follows that she was living in an ivory tower. 

The second factor is the rampant corruption among her entourage. She herself might not have amassed wealth, but she permitted those close to her to make money through corrupt means.  

For example, Jahangir Alam, who was working as a peon in her office, migrated to the US in mid-July after amassing 4 billion taka, equal to $85.23 million. The newspaper, Dhaka Tribune, carried the story on 15 July, and Hasina herself mentioned the figure of 4 billion taka. 

In short, a toxic combination of megalomania, corruption, and insulation from reality caused Hasina’s downfall. 

What’s in store for Bangladesh? 

Will there be a weak interim civilian government, prepared to take orders from the military, in office for a long time?  

Most unlikely. 

It is rather unfortunate that it was the army chief, General Waker-Uz-Zaman, who informed the nation of Hasina’s departure. He made it clear that an interim civilian government would be appointed to conduct a general election. That announcement should have come from President Mohammed Shahabuddin, who took office in April 2023 for a five-year term. 

Shahabuddin, who later addressed the nation, appealed for calm, dissolved the Parliament, and said that an interim government will be installed after consultations with political parties.  

The three defense chiefs stood behind him as he addressed the nation. Khalida Zia ,78, in prison since 2018 after a trial that was not fair according to Amnesty International, has been released.  

Students Against Discrimination (SAD) released a statement proposing Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, 84, as chief adviser to the interim government. The statement was issued around 4.30 am on Tuesday, 6 August. 

We are still awaiting the official declaration by the President. It is expected that a competent team, consisting mainly of technical experts, will be announced soon. 

Meanwhile, there have been instances of violence. Some protesters have vandalized the statue of Rahman and ransacked the official residence of the prime minister. While these acts are unfortunate and should be condemned, it would be wrong to blame all those who opposed Hasina for these heinous acts. 

As of now, there are good reasons to expect Bangladesh to restore democracy as soon as possible by conducting a clean election. 

Impact on India  

Whether entirely true or not, there is a general impression that India had put all its eggs in one basket, which is not part of good diplomatic practice. 

Was New Delhi taken by surprise by Hasina’s fall? We do not know. 

After Mubarak’s fall, I visited Cairo. When asked if they had any indication that Mubarak was about to fall, the European ambassadors I spoke to said they had no such insight.  

Ambassadors are not always the first to know. I observed this in Iran as well when the Shah fell in 1979 during my tenure as First Secretary from 1976 to 1979. 

What about intelligence agencies such as RAW or the CIA? We will have to wait for the declassification of documents, if and when that happens. 

Meanwhile, it’s worth noting that the English-medium mainstream media in India, perhaps under certain ‘instructions,’ hardly reported on the unfree election in January. 

We may note that China might have had a premonition of Hasina’s fall. Last month, Hasina cut short her visit there by a day, reportedly because Beijing did not offer financial assistance. 

Will it be wise for India to give her a long asylum?  

No.  

If India does that, there could be violent responses against the Indian High Commission, the Hindu minority, and temples. The best option is for Hasina to fly to London and start writing her memoirs. 

Hasina is now in Delhi, and India is considering whether to grant her asylum. India did the right thing by offering her temporary asylum as she fled for her life. 

India should be able to work with any leader in power in Bangladesh. Over-personalized diplomacy carries significant risks and dangers. One respected commentator suggested that Pakistan would be pleased to see Hasina flee, which is true. However, this does not mean India should be unhappy. Diplomacy involves pursuing one’s interests while promoting values, without succumbing to emotional reactions. Incidentally, the statement of EAM in parliament referred to the army chief’s address to the nation, but not of the President. Why?