As we contemplate the state—or rather the predicament—of the US and the rest of the world (RoW) with US President Donald J. Trump completing three months in office on 20 April, coinciding with Easter, we are reminded of former British Foreign Secretary Edward Grey’s words:

“The lamps are going out all over Europe. We shall not see them lit again in our time.”

Grey spoke on 3 August 1914, on the eve of World War I.

In this context, we might also recall an observation on foreign policy by Otto von Bismarck, the Iron Chancellor of Prussia, who created the German Empire that started World War I:

“The mistakes that have been committed in foreign policy are not as a rule apparent to the public until a generation afterwards.”

The manipulation of public opinion has advanced by leaps and bounds since Bismarck’s time.

Several media channels have asked me whether World War III is likely to break out soon—probably because Trump referred to it.

I do not believe World War III is imminent.

However, unfortunately, without starting a war, Trump can still do much harm to humanity.

He has embarked on a project titled MAGA (Make America Great Again), which is likely to diminish America significantly and benefit China considerably, illustrating the law of unintended consequences that operates throughout history.

Trump has already diminished America

He has diminished America in at least three ways:

By starting a trade war that could ruin America politically and economically; by projecting America as an unreliable partner; and by imperiling democracy, academic freedom, and civil liberties to a degree that seriously erodes America’s standing as the world’s oldest democracy.

By announcing tariffs one day, raising them another, and pausing them soon after, Trump could earn a mention for inconsistency in the Guinness Book of Records.

By announcing major decisions—such as leaving the World Health Organization (WHO)—via social media, apparently without due examination of pros and cons by officials, Trump has gained a reputation for unpredictability, to put it mildly.

He resembles the wicked and capricious Queen of Hearts in Lewis Carroll’s 1865 novel Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland.

Trump’s efforts to undermine democracy

First, Trump has subverted due process by allowing Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk to run amok in the name of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a dubious entity that is not a properly constituted department.

It has carried out its task with outstanding inefficiency, recklessness, and dishonesty.

For instance, DOGE claimed it had saved $21 million that was about to be spent in India promoting “voter turnout.”

Trump repeatedly praised Musk for this “saving,” even after investigative reports showed the money was meant for Bangladesh, not India.

DOGE has been exposed by the media for making grossly exaggerated claims.

The New York Times investigated and reported that Musk, who claimed he would save $1 trillion, has so far claimed to have saved only $150 billion—a claim that does not stand scrutiny.

Second, Trump has further undermined due process, essential in any democratic polity.

Violating a court order, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) deported Kilmar Albergo Gracia, 29, an El Salvadoran in the US since 2012.

He has a wife and children in the US.

Suddenly, Kilmar was picked up and accused of being a member of MS-13, a gang DHS has labeled as terrorist.

However, the courts found DHS’s evidence insufficient to support the charge.

Even the Supreme Court ordered DHS to ‘facilitate’ his return.

But Trump remains adamant.

Clearly, he rejects Montesquieu’s doctrine of separation of powers among the executive, judiciary, and legislature, enshrined in the US Constitution.

Third, the Trump administration has attacked civil liberties and academic freedom.

Foreign students supporting Palestine or criticizing Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza have had their visas revoked.

So far, 327 students have been asked to leave, 50% from India and 14% from China.

Trump has revoked grants to institutions such as Harvard and Columbia.

His intention is to destroy such institutions.

He has threatened to bar Harvard from admitting foreign students.

Harvard and Columbia predate the US, founded in 1636 and 1754, respectively.

He has abolished the Department of Education.

My advice to young Indians is to put plans to study in the US on hold until this madness ends.

It could end sooner rather than later.

Trump has also threatened to sack the Federal Reserve chair—America’s central bank—if interest rates are not lowered.

Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, warned of the adverse effects of Trump’s tariffs in an address to the Economic Club of Chicago.

Technically, the President lacks the power to sack the chair.

The US under Trump is an unreliable partner

We have already covered the absurd logic of Trump’s tariff measures.

Earlier this month, Trump paused the so-called ‘reciprocal tariffs’ for 90 days and started negotiations with individual countries.

If anyone believes 70 bilateral trade agreements can be negotiated and concluded in 90 days, think again.

Trade deals take years.

Talks with Japan have just begun.

Trump’s foreign policy

Trump had boldly declared as a candidate while campaigning for polls that he would end the war in Ukraine “within 24 hours.”

Correctly assessing the situation, Trump recognized the need to reach an agreement with Moscow on the outline of a ceasefire before involving Ukraine.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine was eager for a ceasefire, though the latter needed it more.

Recently, Trump stated he might abandon ceasefire efforts if both sides are not serious.

He may have said this to pressure them into acting.

Of course, it is naïve to blame Trump for the absence of a ceasefire.

If the belligerents are not seeking peace, no mediator can enforce it.

Russia seeks more territory, while Ukraine’s leader Volodymyr Zelensky refuses to acknowledge the reality—encouraged by Europe’s promises of a “coalition of the willing” to support Ukraine.

As Trump noted, thousands are dying each week.

The key lesson is Trump grossly overestimated his influence over Russia and Ukraine.

Driven by MAGA, Trump does not grasp the value of multilateral diplomacy or institutions.

He has pulled the US out of the WHO and ordered the Secretary of State to scrutinize UNESCO and UNRWA.

This is a perilous move by the US that led the global community in the aftermath of World War II in building a system of international cooperation.

Of course, it does not follow that the international system will collapse if Trump wants it to collapse.

It remains true that what Trump is trying to do is utterly irresponsible.

What’s Next?

Trump shows signs of recognizing his mistakes.

He paused the ‘reciprocal tariffs’ for 90 days.

He raised tariffs on China to an absurd 245%.

He claims discussions with China are ongoing. Whether that’s true remains unclear.

The key question is: When the dust settles, what will Trump have gained?

India, Japan, and a few others may lower tariffs on US goods favored by Trump.

But tariff cuts don’t guarantee imports.

Even after reconciling with Canada, buyers may still boycott bourbon whiskey.

Trump’s claim of earning billions through tariffs is false, and sooner or later, Americans will realize it.

Trump will course-correct to limit the damages.

But the harm to global trade, diplomacy, and America’s reputation will linger.

Let’s recall Shakespeare’s Marc Antony:

“The evil that men do lives after them;
The good is oft interred with their bones.”