Superbug crisis may get worse, kill nearly 40 million people by 2050: Lancet

Drug-resistant infections are expected to claim the lives of 39 million people over the next 25 years, a new study said.

The Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) Project released a groundbreaking study that paints a bleak picture of the future of antibiotic resistance.

The research, published in The Lancet, said more than a million people died annually due to drug-resistant infections between 1990 and 2021.

According to the study, the number of deaths directly attributable to antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is expected to increase by almost 70% per year by 2050.

Additionally, the number of deaths in which AMR bacteria, also known as ‘superbugs’, play a role will rise by nearly 75% during the same period.

While the study found that AMR deaths among children under five have decreased by 50% since 1990, deaths among people aged 70 and older have increased by more than 80%. 

These trends are projected to continue, with AMR deaths among children under five expected to halve globally by 2050, while deaths among people 70 and older are predicted to more than double.

The findings underscore the urgent need for interventions to combat antibiotic resistance. 

This includes improving infection prevention and control, increasing vaccination rates, minimizing inappropriate antibiotic use, and investing in research and development of new antibiotics.

According to study author Dr Mohsen Naghavi, team leader of the AMR research team at the Institute of Health Metrics (IHME), University of Washington, antimicrobial medicines are the one of the most important components of modern healthcare and AMR is an important point of contention. 

“These findings highlight that AMR has been a significant global health threat for decades and that this threat is growing. Understanding how trends in AMR deaths have changed over time, and how they are likely to shift in future, is vital to make informed decisions to help save lives,” said Dr Naghavi.

The study also found that the burden of AMR deaths has shifted significantly over the past three decades. 

While deaths among children under five have decreased, the proportion of infectious deaths directly caused by AMR has increased. Conversely, AMR deaths among adults aged 70 or older have risen by more than 80%.

The global regions that experienced the most significant increases in AMR-related deaths between 1990 and 2021 were western sub-Saharan Africa, Tropical Latin America, high-income North America, Southeast Asia, and South Asia. 

The study’s authors emphasized the urgent need for global action to address the growing threat of AMR. 

Investing in research and development of new antibiotics, improving infection prevention and control measures, and promoting responsible antibiotics were listed as crucial steps to mitigate the devastating impact of drug-resistant infections.