Rising sea levels pose grave threat to Mumbai, climate study finds

“Climate change brought on by fossil-fuel burning and greenhouse gas emissions has led to a steady increase in global temperatures,” said CSTEP in a statement. 

Rising sea surface temperatures together with melting glaciers, due to increasing global temperatures, have resulted in accelerated sea level rise (SLR), endangering coastal cities globally, India included. 

Mumbai has witnessed the most dramatic SLR in the past few decades, among the 15 coastal cities that were analyzed, with a cumulative increase of 4.44 cm between 1987 and 2021. 

The city also witnessed a rapid rise in the rate of SLR increase at 0.315 centimeters per year, followed by Visakhapatnam (0.181 cm/year), Kochi (0.158 cm/year), and Paradip (0.108 cm/year).

Under high emissions scenarios, the study predicts a dire situation by 2100.

Even with moderate emissions, Mumbai could see a 76.2 cm rise by the century’s end.

But while Tier-I cities like Mumbai and Chennai may experience increased challenges, Tier-II cities like Mangaluru and Haldia, and towns of Paradip, Thoothukudi, and Yanam are projected to face even more severe inundation.

“India, surrounded by the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, and Bay of Bengal, has a 7,517-km coastline, making SLR a crucial concern to the country,” said the study.

India’s coastal cities are increasingly grappling with frequent flooding as well, said the report, a problem exacerbated by SLR. 

“Under future climate scenarios, SLR-induced inundation will lead to extended coastal flooding, with serious impacts on key sectors such as water, agriculture, forest and biodiversity, and health,” said the report.

Coastal ecosystems, including beaches, backwaters, and mangrove forests, are particularly vulnerable as they support biodiversity and tourism, both of which will suffer. 

Additionally, towns like Haldia, Udupi, Panaji, and Yanam, with substantial agricultural lands, wetlands, and water bodies, are at high risk of subsidence due to SLR, according to the report. 

The increased threat of coastal hazards can also endanger both major and minor ports in these regions.