Syria plunges into political uncertainty after Assad regime collapses

A sudden offensive by the Syrian rebel forces into Damascus on Sunday sent former president Bashar Al Assad fleeing to Russia, ending his family’s six-decade-long dominance of the Arab nation, of which he had led for 24 years.

The former eye doctor fled Damascus, with Russian state media reporting that he has been granted asylum by Moscow, Syria’s longtime ally, plunging the Arab nation into political uncertainty.

The Syrian capital fell to opposition forces, including groups linked to the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a militant organization with historical ties to terrorist group Al Qaeda.

Assad’s longtime allies, Russia and Iran–along with its proxy Hezbollah–had been heavily involved in propping up his government, ever since the Arab Spring that began in 2011.

While the long-drawn-out war with Ukraine that began in February 2022 kept Russia busy, Israel’s recent onslaught against Hezbollah–in which most of its top leaders were killed–left Iran handicapped.

In the days leading to Damascus’s fall, rebels had captured key cities such as Homs and Daraa, forcing the Syrian military to retreat.

‘India monitoring developments in Syria’

India, meanwhile, said it is monitoring the situation in Syria.

“We are monitoring the situation in Syria in the light of on-going developments. We underline the need for all parties to work towards preserving the unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria,” India’s ministry of external affairs said in a statement.

“We advocate a peaceful and inclusive Syrian-led political process respecting the interests and aspirations of all sections of Syrian society,” it said, adding: “Our embassy in Damascus is in contact with the Indian community, for their safety and security.”

Fresh start on the horizon

The rebels celebrated what they called the “liberation” of these areas, declaring a new era for Syria.

The situation remains highly volatile as a power vacuum in Damascus could aggravate instability.

However, it also presents an opportunity for a fresh start for the war-torn country if the international community navigates the country’s complex politics.

Assad is an Alawite, a minority sect in Sunni-dominated Syria, and his regime was the cornerstone of Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’, which was formed to counter Western and Israeli influence in the region.

With the Assad regime’s collapse and the takeover of Damascus by Sunni Islamist rebels, Iran–a predominantly Shia nation–loses an important strategic ally in the region.

Dent in Iran’s influence

The development could hamper Iran’s influence in Syria and its strategic corridor that stretches from Tehran to Beirut, providing the logistical support Hezbollah needs to operate against Israel.

Moreover, the loss of Syria could also weaken Iran’s position in the region.

The operations of Hezbollah, which has long depended on Syria for military and logistical support, could be severely affected by the loss of its supply lines, especially amid Israeli military campaigns in the region.

Meanwhile, for Russia, Assad’s fall potentially reflects a substantial loss in terms of its military presence in the Middle East.

The ousted Syrian regime has been a vital ally for Russia as it granted Moscow access to the Tartus naval base, Russia’s only warm-water port outside its own borders.

Losing the base would reduce Moscow’s ability to project power in the Mediterranean, and could signal a shift in its Middle East priorities.

Rebuilding, economically and politically

Assad’s departure has made way for rebel forces, led by HTS, to takeover Syria. However, concerns over the extremist group taking control of the country remain.

After the power transition, Syria’s new government will face the enormous task of rebuilding the country, economically and politically.

However, the prospects of a stable and inclusive government remains uncertain, as the country has a long road ahead for significant reconstruction.