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India’s weather office foresees above-normal monsoon rains
The IMD has also forecasted an above-normal number of heatwave-days during the summer months from April to June
India’s weather department has predicted above-normal rainfall during the annual monsoon season that runs from June to September, buoying hopes of a surge in farm incomes that will eventually boost consumption and lift the other segments of the Indian economy.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday forecast 105% of the long period average, or normal rainfall, during the monsoon season.
The long period average of rainfall is 87 cm, indicating that India may receive about 91cm (105% of 87 cm) during the four-month period. The forecast has a 5% margin of error.
The key climactic elements that influence the monsoon are currently favorable, the IMD said in its first long-range forecast for the season.
These include neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the equatorial Pacific region, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions that are expected to continue during the monsoon season, and below normal snow cover over areas of the North Pole.
India receives a bulk of its total annual rainfall during the monsoon season, which is also a crucial phase for the farming sector.
The IMD also forecasts an above-normal number of heatwave-days during the summer months from April to June.
The weather office predicted above-normal precipitation over most parts of the country, especially in the northwest, northeast and southern peninsular regions.
The weather forecaster also said that it does not foresee an El Niño phenomenon in the June-September monsoon period, aligning with the US Climate Prediction Center’s forecast.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern where unusually warm waters in the Pacific Ocean disrupt global weather, often weakening India’s monsoon rains.
The US Department of Agriculture’s global arm earlier this month forecast a record wheat crop in India for a third year on higher-than-average rainfall last year.
Last year, the monsoon rains were 108% of the long period average, the weather department said, making it the best rainy season in four years. For comparison, 2023 saw the weakest rainy season in half a decade.
The weather office said it will issue an updated forecast for monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May.
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