Global recession risks soar on US tariffs, Reuters poll shows

A growing number of economists are warning that the global economy is at an increased risk of entering a recession in 2025, according to a Reuters poll conducted between 1 and 28 April.

The survey, which covered nearly 50 countries, shows a significant shift in outlook compared to three months ago, when global growth projections were comparatively optimistic.

Of the more than 300 economists surveyed, 92% said that recent policies on tariffs had a negative impact on business. Only 8%, mostly from developing countries like India, said the effect was neutral. No one said the impact was positive.

US President Donald Trump’s move to place a 10% tariff on all imports and a 145% tariff on Chinese goods has led to unstable markets and made investors less confident. Although some of the harsher tariffs have been paused for now, uncertainty still persists.

Some experts believe the damage caused may continue even if the tariffs are removed.

When asked about the risk of a global recession this year, 101 out of 167 economists (about 60%) said the chances were high or very high. Sixty-six said the risk was low or very low.

The results suggest that the global economy might be weaker than earlier expected, and trade policies are still a major concern for investors and policymakers.