IEA sees India as top oil guzzler until 2030

India will lead global oil demand growth through 2030, outpacing China and the US, as consumption slows in advanced economies and plateaus in China, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) latest outlook.

This shift reflects India’s economic and industrial growth when advanced economies and China move toward peak or declining oil consumption, the IEA’s “Oil 2025” report said.

According to the IEA, India is expected to add one million barrels per day (mb/d) in oil demand between 2024 and 2030—the most significant increase by any country in this period.

The report highlighted the changing dynamics of global oil demand and the unique trajectory of emerging economies like India compared to their international peers.

The report suggests that despite ongoing efforts to diversify away from oil, India’s economic expansion and demographic trends will support robust demand, setting it apart from its global peers through the decade’s end.

Global oil demand is forecast to rise by 2.5 mb/d from 2024 to 2030, reaching a plateau of around 105.5 mb/d by the end of this decade, with growth increasingly concentrated in emerging and developing economies, the report added.

The IEA noted that emerging markets, led by India and the Southeast Asian economies, will account for a combined 4.2 mb/d increase in demand during this period, offsetting declines in advanced economies.

Indian oil demand starkly contrasts the declining oil consumption forecast for OECD countries, which are expected to reduce demand by 1.7 mb/d by 2030.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has 38 member countries from North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific.

China, which drove global oil demand over the past decade, is now projected to see its oil consumption peak this decade, with only marginal gains through 2030 as electric vehicle adoption, LNG-powered transport, and high-speed rail expansion reshape its energy use.

As oil prices hit four-year lows earlier this year, OPEC responded with supply cuts, while geopolitical tensions led energy firms to reassess their investment plans.