Skymet forecasts ‘normal’ monsoon this year

Skymet’s forecast for the June-September monsoon period aligns with its earlier projection in January.

The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) this season, which has historically helped moderate monsoons during El Niño-like conditions, will be the key factor at play, Skymet said.

This positive IOD, combined with the ongoing La Niña phase, suggests a favorable outlook for overall rainfall.

“El Niño is swiftly flipping over to La  Niña . And monsoon circulation tends to be stronger during La  Niña years,” Skymet managing director Jatin Singh said.

“Also, transition from Super El Niño to strong La Niña has historically tended to produce a decent monsoon. However, monsoon season may start with risk of impairment, attributable to the remnant effects of El Niño. The second half of the season will have an overwhelming edge over the primal phase,” he said.

Skymet has warned of potential variations within the season.

The rapid shift from El Niño to La Niña might cause an uneven start to the monsoon. Additionally, rainfall distribution is likely to be uneven throughout the season.

Regionally, Skymet expects good rainfall in South, West, and Northwest India.

Core monsoon zones like Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh are likely to receive adequate rain. However, eastern states like Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal might face deficits during peak monsoon months of July and August.

Similarly, the North-East could experience below-normal rainfall in the first half of the season.