Climate bodies turn up the heat as Baku summit gets underway

Close on heels of Europe’s climate monitoring body forecasting that 2024 was well on its way to becoming the hottest year ever, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said the global average temperature between January-September was 1.54 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.

The release of the reports–by Copernicus Climate Change Service and the WMO–coincides with COP29, the 29th UN climate summit, currently underway in Baku, Azerbaijan.

The years between 2015-24 will be the hottest decade on record, with rapid loss of ice from glaciers, rising sea level and extreme weather across the world, the WMO report said.

Currently, 2023 holds the record for the warmest year on record; however, 2024 is expected to surpass that.

For 16 consecutive months, from June 2023 to September 2024, global temperatures likely exceeded previous records, often by significant margins, the WMO’s analysis showed.

Copernicus last week forecasted that temperatures this year are likely to cross 1.55 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.

‘Every fraction of a degree of warming matters’

The Paris Agreement, adopted at COP21, aims to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, ideally keeping it under 1.5 degrees Celsius.

WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo said surpassing the 1.5-degree mark does not mean failure to meet the Paris targets. Temperature fluctuations, influenced by phenomena like El Niño and La Niña, should not be confused with long-term goals, she stressed, while adding that “every fraction of a degree matters.”

Each increment of warming escalates climate extremes and risks, Saulo said.

Impact on global economy

The WMO report also showed that greenhouse gas emissions are likely to reach record high levels when compared to those in 2023. Carbon dioxide levels are at present 51% higher than pre-industrial times.

Oceans, absorbing 90% of this excess heat, recorded unprecedented temperatures in 2023, with 2024 data showing a similar trend—changes that are” irreversible on centennial to millennial timescales”, according to the report.

The analysis also showed that that glaciers have been melting at an accelerated speed. In 2023, it reached a peak loss, contributing to rising sea levels now increasing at twice the rate seen in past decades.

Apart from impacting the climate, this warming has also affected the world economically. From lethal heatwaves to severe flooding and cyclones, causing significant human and economic damage. The WMO said these events’ impacts on food security, water access, health, and displacement, especially for vulnerable populations.