India’s fertility rate slips below replacement level, UN report says

India’s fertility rate has fallen to 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1, the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) State of World Population 2025 report, titled The Real Fertility Crisis, said.

The findings show a significant demographic change in India as it continues to be the world’s most populous country.

The report said India’s population is projected to reach 1.46 billion this year and is expected to peak at 1.7 billion before beginning to decline in about 40 years.

This trend is similar to what has been observed globally, where the average fertility rate has dropped from 5 in 1950 to 2.25 in 2024. By 2050, global fertility is expected to reach the replacement level of 2.1.

In India, better access to reproductive healthcare and education, and increased participation of women in decisions about family planning have contributed to this demographic change.

In 1960, the average Indian woman had nearly six children. Today, she has about two.

According to the report, the fertility decline has not been uniform across the country.

States with fertility rates above the national average include Bihar (2.98), Meghalaya (2.9), Uttar Pradesh (2.35), Jharkhand (2.26), and Manipur (2.2).

In contrast, urban areas now have a fertility rate of 1.6, down from 2.7 in 1992-93, while rural areas have reduced from 3.7 to 2.1 in the same period.

The UNFPA findings are consistent with India’s National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), which also recorded a fertility rate of 2.0 in 2022.

The report, based on a survey conducted by YouGov across 14 countries, including India, highlighted that 68% of India’s population is in the working-age group of 15–64 years. Meanwhile, those aged 65 and older comprise 7% of the population.

The country’s life expectancy at birth is projected to be 71 years for men and 74 years for women.

The report, however, maintained that several people still do not achieve their desired family size. In India, 38% of respondents said financial limitations was a major factor in limiting the number of children they wanted.

Moreover, 21% of respondents said job insecurity was another reason why individuals did not have desired number of children. Family dynamics also influenced decisions—19% said their partners wanted fewer children, and 15% noted a lack of help with childcare or household tasks.

Healthcare workers were identified as another factor, with 14% of respondents reporting pressure from doctors or health workers to limit childbearing.

While 51% of Indian women aged 15-49 are using contraceptives, the rate among married women is 68%.

“Millions of people are not able to realize their real fertility goals.  This is the real crisis, not underpopulation or overpopulation, and the answer lies in greater reproductive agency – a person’s ability to make free and informed choices about sex, contraception and starting a family,” the report said.

India now joins a group of middle-income countries undergoing rapid demographic transformation, with population doubling time estimated at 79 years.