Southwest Monsoon arrives in Kerala, IMD says

The southwest monsoon reached Kerala on Thursday, marking the start of the country’s most important weather season and shifting attention from heat waves and power demand to crop sowing, food prices and the Reserve Bank of India’s inflation path.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the monsoon set in over Kerala on 4 June, three days later than its normal onset date of 1 June.

“Southwest Monsoon has set in over Kerala,” the weather office said in its monsoon update.

The June to September rains provide about 70% of India’s annual rainfall and remain central to farm output, reservoir levels, rural incomes and food inflation, even as agriculture’s direct share of the economy has declined.

IMD has forecast the 2026 monsoon at 90% of the long-period average, the weakest in 11 years, as El Niño conditions raise the risk of below-normal rainfall.

June rainfall is expected to be below average, though the economic impact will depend less on the Kerala onset date and more on how quickly and evenly the rains move into the grain, oilseed and cotton belts.

For policymakers, the first test will be prices. India’s retail inflation eased to 3.48% in April, while food inflation stood at 4.20%, according to official data.

A weak or uneven monsoon could reverse that comfort by hitting vegetables, pulses, cereals and oilseeds, the categories most sensitive to rainfall shocks and supply disruptions.

India’s central bank has been balancing softer headline inflation against external risks, including volatile crude prices and currency pressures. A poor monsoon would complicate that calculation by turning a weather event into a food-price shock, which monetary policy can contain only indirectly.

The monsoon also shapes rural demand. Adequate rains support kharif sowing, improve farm cash flows and feed consumption in rural markets, which matter for companies selling everything from two-wheelers and tractors to packaged goods and building materials.

Weak rains, especially in rain-fed regions, can defer purchases, hurt crop yields and force government interventions such as stock releases, procurement support or trade restrictions.

India is less monsoon-dependent than it once was, thanks to irrigation, food stocks, services-led growth and stronger fiscal buffers. Nearly half of India’s farmland still depends on rainfall, making the spread of rains across central, western and northern India more important.

The early signals are mixed. The monsoon has fully covered Kerala and advanced into parts of Tamil Nadu, with conditions favorable for further movement into southern India.

That gives farmers a window to begin sowing in early regions, but the larger economic picture will be clearer only after rainfall performance in July and August, the core months for kharif planting, analysts said.

Global conditions add another layer. Reuters reported that hot and dry weather linked to a strengthening El Niño is already affecting crops across Asia, with concerns around rice, wheat and edible oils.

The government has buffers. India holds food stocks, has experience using export controls and can deploy fiscal measures to limit price spikes. But those tools come with trade-offs. Export restrictions can cool domestic prices while unsettling global markets. Subsidies can protect consumers while straining budgets. Higher procurement can support farmers while complicating inflation management.

That makes the monsoon’s progress over the next six weeks one of the most important macroeconomic indicators in India. A timely advance into the farm belt would support sowing and ease pressure on the RBI. A slow or patchy spread would put food prices, rural demand and policy credibility back under stress.