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Wayanad landslides most likely caused by man-made climate change, new study finds
Scientists also found that heavy one-day rainfall events had increased by 17% in intensity over the past 45 years
The devastating Wayanad landslides in northern Kerala, that resulted in the deaths of hundreds, were likely caused by human-induced climate change that made the monsoon downpour 10% more intense, a new study has found.
“The event is the third heaviest 1-day rainfall event on record, with heavier spells in 2019 and in 1924, and surpasses the very heavy rainfall in 2018 that affected large regions of Kerala,” said World Weather Attribution (WWA), a group of climate researchers.
By analyzing climate data and models, scientists also found that heavy one-day rainfall events had increased by 17% in intensity over the past 45 years, along with a 0.85°C rise in global temperatures.
This was evident in Wayanad as the region received an unprecedented 140mm of rainfall in a single day, surpassing even the record-breaking downpour of 2018, in an event which the WWA stated would only “occur about once every 50 years.”
The report also stated that climate models project even heavier rainfall in the future as the planet continues to warm.
While the Indian Meteorological Department had issued warnings about the extreme rainfall, the information was too broad to pinpoint specific areas at risk of landslides.
“These state-level warnings are often ineffective because they do not specify which particular slopes are most at risk and cover thousands of people, making it difficult to encourage early action,” said the report.
Experts emphasized the need for more localized early warning systems and measures to reduce vulnerability in landslide-prone regions.
Additionally, deforestation and other land-use changes in Wayanad may have contributed to the severity of the landslides.
“A significant shift in recent years has been the 62% reduction in forest cover, which may have played a role in reducing soil stability on those slopes,” the report stated.
The study also highlighted the urgent need for adaptation strategies, including slope stabilization, early warning systems, and protective infrastructure.
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